How can you predict whether the mortgage interest rate will go up or down?

If the rate is 5.5, should you grab it or wait? What economic indicators would tell you that it is going to go down further or going to go up?How can you predict whether the mortgage interest rate will go up or down?
There's a few key reports you can follow that will help you monitor mortgage rates - GDP, retail sales, Employment reports, CPI, PPI. They're all released at different times, but do have an affect on rates. No one thing affects them more or less - mortgage rates are truly dependent upon a variety of factors at all times.





Also, something like the Fed funds rate release like today will likely have an effect. Up or down? Unsure.





Check out the link - it explains all the reports and is all about predicting rates. How can you predict whether the mortgage interest rate will go up or down?
I agree that for the most part it is a gamble. There are factors that can predict the liklihood of rates to go up or down however at the moment the economy is so volatile that the indicators can change in as little as a month.





In Australia the major indicator is inflation. When inflation is higher than 3% than rates are likely to go up and when inflation is below 2% or there is slow growth / recession then rates tend to go down.





My best bet would be to read reputable economic reporters articles in newspapers such as the Sydney Morning Herald. Ignore all the emotional hype articles, they have a lot of these as well.





Note that most people predict rates to continue to trend downward for sometime, although nobody is sure
Mortgage rates are always hard to predict but because we are in a credit crisis it is extra hard right now. Mortgage rates are usually just 1 or 2% higher than long term savings rates but right now it is higher than that. The reason is because since house values are constantly changing, it's hard for a lender to determine the amount of risk so they have been charging more lately.





What all that means is that mortgage rates MAY go down a little bit as the credit crisis softens. But nobody can tell you when or how much.





The main thing is if you are comfortable with the payment and the loan is fixed at 5.5 take it. Even if the rate drops a little, you really won't be saving that much after taxes. Besides, 5.5 is about as low as it has been in the last 25 years. If you hold out for lower, you may lose your chance.
You should grab a 5.5% interest rate (as long as the rate is fixed). It is incredibly good and has never been much lower (if any) than that. History makes it abundantly clear that it can not go much lower than that.





Back to the original question. You might as well be asking how to predict the winner of a horse race. God knows everything including the future but we mortals can not predict the future.
You can't if it a fixed rate loan. If it is a fixed rate loan, 5.5% is a great rat. Grab it now.





If it is an adjustable rate loan it will go up. Leave it alone and go for a fixed rate loan.
If one could accurately predict it, one would be a millionaire or billionaire. It's your best guess, inform yourself of the economy, of business climate, of stock market, and Guess.
Subscribe to the Mortgage Bankers Association newspaper. They have reporters who do the predictions for the rates..
Nobody knows, its a waiting game I am afraid.